Transdisciplinary AI Solutions for Supply Chain, Logistics, and Scheduling

TAIS.ai

BOOK A DEMO
Team:

Founder & CEO: Marzieh Khakifirooz

Supply Chain Stress Test Tool

Welcome to the Supply Chain Stress-Testing & Resilience Tool! This guide will walk you through the process of analyzing your supply chain, from uploading your data to running “what-if” scenarios.

Getting Started

When you first open the tool, you’ll see a welcome page.

  • Start Stress-Testing: Click this button to begin the step-by-step process.
  • How to use this tool: This button opens a pop-up with a high-level overview of the entire process.
Step 1: Select KPIs for Stress-Testing

This is where you define the key performance indicators (KPIs) you want to analyze. These KPIs are the focal points of your stress-test.

  • KPI Options: You can select one or more of the following:
    • Warehouse/Plant Capacity: Analyzes the risk of exceeding your facility’s storage or production limits.
    • Warehouse/Plant Cost: Focuses on the financial impact of your warehousing and plant operations.
    • Transportation Time: Measures the variability and potential for delays in your shipping lanes.
    • Transportation Cost: Examines the volatility and cost-efficiency of your freight.
    • Joint Transportation Cost & Time: A combined KPI that assesses the trade-offs between cost and time in your logistics network.
  • Confirm KPIs & Proceed: After selecting your KPIs, click this button to move to the next step. If you don’t select any, an error message will appear.
Step 2: Upload & Map Your Data

This section is where you connect your operational data to the tool’s calculation models.

Uploading Your Data
  1. Upload Excel File: Click the “Choose File” button to upload your supply chain data in an Excel file (.xlsx or .xls format).
  2. File Status: The tool will process your file and confirm that it has loaded successfully.
Data Mapping

After your file is loaded, a series of questions will appear, asking you to map the internal variables of the tool (like “Customers involved in each order”) to the corresponding sheet and column headers in your uploaded Excel file.

  • Sheet: Use the dropdown menu to select the Excel sheet that contains the relevant data.
  • Column: Once a sheet is selected, a second dropdown will populate with its column headers. Choose the header that corresponds to the variable.
  • Submit All Data: After mapping all the required variables, click this button to finalize the data configuration.

If any required fields are missing, the tool will notify you. A “Download Config” button will also appear, allowing you to save your mapping selections for future use.

Next Steps

After successfully mapping your data, you can choose to:

  • Visualize Network: Proceed to view a graphical representation of your supply chain.
  • Calculate Static Stress Metrics: Run a static stress-test to get an immediate snapshot of your vulnerabilities.
  • Analyze Stochastic Metrics: Run a time-series analysis to understand how your KPIs evolve over time.
Step 3: Visualize Network

This section provides a dynamic visual map of your supply chain network. It helps you understand the connections between your plants, ports, and customers.

  • Network Display: The central area shows your network.
  • Legend: A legend in the bottom right corner explains the meaning of different node shapes and edge colors:
    • Green Circle: Customer
    • Pink Box: Plant
    • Blue Diamond: Port
    • Solid Black Line: Port/Customer Flow
    • Dashed Blue Line: Plant Supply
  • View Stress Metrics: Click this button to move to the results of your static stress-test.
Step 4: Calculate Static Stress Metrics

This section presents a quantitative analysis of your supply chain’s vulnerabilities based on the formulas from the tool’s documentation.

Results Display
  • Node-Level Vulnerability Scores: This table shows the calculated vulnerability scores for each of your plants and ports for the KPIs you selected in Step 1.
  • Color-Coding: The table uses color-coding to highlight risk:
    • Orange: The node’s vulnerability score exceeds the Value-at-Risk (VaR) threshold.
    • Red: The node’s vulnerability score exceeds the Conditional Value-at-Risk (CVaR) threshold, indicating a severe tail-risk event.
  • VaR Alpha (α): You can adjust this value (the confidence level for your risk metrics) and click Recalculate VaR/CVaR to see how the risk classifications change. The default is 0.05.
Next Steps

From here, you can:

  • Get Recommendations & Interpretation: Get an AI-powered analysis of your results.
  • Calibrate & Run Scenarios: Proceed to the scenario-building section to test “what-if” situations.
Step 5: Analyze Stochastic Metrics

The stochastic analysis section provides an in-depth, time-series view of your supply chain’s health, allowing you to identify trends, shocks, and recovery times.

Controls & Charts
  • Select KPI Category: Choose a category to view its network-level time-series plots.
  • Drill Down (Optional): After selecting a category, you can optionally drill down into a specific node (e.g., a particular plant or a shipping lane) to see its individual KPI distribution over time.
  • Charts: The two charts on the page dynamically update to show:
    • Network-Level Timers: Plots the network’s Time to Survive (TTS), Time to Adapt (TTA), Time to Recover (TTR), and the Volatitlity Index (VIX) over the time period of your data.
    • Node-Level KPI Distribution: Displays a distribution of the selected node’s KPIs, helping you understand their volatility and probability of extreme events.
Next Steps
  • Get Recommendations & Interpretation: Access the AI-powered analysis for your time-series data.
  • Calibrate & Run Scenarios: Proceed to the scenario builder to simulate dynamic shocks.
Step 6: AI-Powered Recommendations & Chat

This section provides an AI-generated analysis of your stress-test results, along with a chat interface for follow-up questions.

  • AI Recommendations: The main output window provides a structured report with an executive summary, key findings, and actionable recommendations based on your data.
  • Chat Interface: Use the chat box to ask the AI follow-up questions about the results, get more details on specific recommendations, or inquire about the underlying calculation models.
Step 7: Calibrate & Run Scenarios

This is where you can simulate changes to your supply chain and measure their impact on vulnerability. You can create both static and stochastic scenarios.

Static Scenario Controls
  • Modify Node Parameters: Select a node type (Plant, Port, or Customer) and an ID to adjust its key parameters, such as a plant’s capacity or a port’s average delay.
  • Adjust Global Model Parameters: Fine-tune the underlying model parameters (β,γ,δ) to test how changes in your risk tolerance affect the results.
  • Manage Scenarios: Enter a name for your scenario and click Add Current Changes as New Scenario. Once a scenario is added, click Run Last Added Scenario to see its impact.
Stochastic Scenario Controls
  • Simulate a Shock Event: Select an event type (e.g., “Port Delay Spike”) and a specific node to simulate a sudden, disruptive event in your network.
  • Manage Scenarios: Name your scenario, then click Add Stochastic Scenario and Run Last Added Scenario to see how the simulated shock affects the time-series plots and network timers.
Scenario Comparison

After running a scenario, a comparison grid will appear, allowing you to review the results side-by-side with your original base case.

  • Download Full Report: Once you are satisfied with your analysis, click this button to generate a comprehensive PDF report of all your results, including the base case and any scenarios you ran.